FrançaisShould you invest in January?
Below is the 12-month entry ranking (JPI Fair method, S&P 500, 2015-2024) — January is highlighted — then the year-by-year detail for buying in early January.
| # ↕ | Month i ↕ | Return / yr i ▼ | Ratio i ↕ | $1000 becomes (10y) i ↕ | S&P 500 comparison i ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May | +17.5% | 0.53 | $3,709 | +11% |
| 2 | October | +17.4% | 0.89 | $4,276 | +14.1% |
| 3 | November | +17.2% | 0.92 | $4,326 | +13.7% |
| 4 | June | +16.7% | 0.5 | $3,428 | +11.4% |
| 5 | July | +16.3% | 0.56 | $3,354 | +12.3% |
| 6 | April | +16% | 0.41 | $2,844 | +11.8% |
| 7 | January | +14.4% | 0.81 | $3,403 | +12.2% |
| 8 | September | +14.4% | 0.89 | $3,484 | +13.2% |
| 9 | August | +14.2% | 0.71 | $3,283 | +12.1% |
| 10 | December | +14.2% | 1.18 | $3,569 | +13.2% |
| 11 | March | +13.6% | 0.69 | $3,036 | +11.7% |
| 12 | February | +12.6% | 0.67 | $2,837 | +12.4% |
Method used: JPI Fair (the balanced formula — buy stocks where at least 2 analysts reliable on their sector are bullish, taking the median of their targets). Our recommended formula.
• Return / yr: average annual gain of that selection if you buy that month, over 2015-2024.
• Ratio: return ÷ volatility — higher means steadier results (S&P 500 ≈ 0.9).
• $1000 becomes (10y): what $1000 invested that month each year would become after 10 years (compounded).
• S&P 500 comparison: the average S&P 500 return over the same period. It is far more stable regardless of the month (~14-18%/yr) — so the entry month matters mostly with the JPI method, not if you just buy the index.
📅 Why does the ranking stop at 2024? It's the window common to all 12 months. The 2025 cycles for August–December aren't finished yet (their 12 months haven't elapsed), so we exclude them from the ranking to compare every month on equal terms. Each month page, however, already shows its 2025 as soon as it's complete (January→July).
Year by year — buy early January
| Year | Return (buy early January) |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +24.3% (ongoing) |
| 2025 | +56.3% |
| 2024 | +4.7% |
| 2023 | +47.6% |
| 2022 | -12.7% |
| 2021 | +26.3% |
| 2020 | +10.4% |
| 2019 | +31.1% |
| 2018 | -9.5% |
| 2017 | +26.1% |
| 2016 | +15.6% |
| 2015 | +4.6% |
📊 Interactive version — January, 3 universes, filters →
FAQ
Is January a good time to invest?
Over 2015-2024, buying in early January (JPI Fair method, S&P 500) returned +14.4%/yr on average, the 7th of the 12 months. But 10 years is little: it's a tendency, not a guarantee, and the entry month matters less than staying invested.
What would $1000 invested in January have become?
On average over 2015-2024, $1000 invested in early January each year (12-month hold, JPI Fair method) would have become about $3403, versus the S&P 500 index on the same basis.
What is the best month to invest compared to January?
In our 2015-2024 ranking, May comes first. January is the 7th. See the full 12-month ranking above.
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational analysis, not investment advice. Point-in-time backtest on recomputed Yahoo data, short sample (10 years). Past performance does not predict the future.