FrançaisLower-risk stocks to buy
The top 20 stocks where the single most reliable analyst on the sector is bullish, prioritizing analyst reliability over upside. 11-year backtest: +21%/yr vs +12.6% S&P 500, lowest volatility (~25%), ratio 0.95. The least risky, but still a bet.
| # ↕ | Stock ↕ | Price ↕ | Reliable analysts' target i ▼ | Reliability (best analyst) i ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | META Meta Platforms | $612.49 | 🎯 $860 (most reliable) +40% · 24 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 100% profitable Cantor Fitzgerald · Comm. · 13 calls |
| 2 | GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | $324.89 | 🎯 $420 (most reliable) +29% · 7 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 100% profitable Cantor Fitzgerald · Comm. · 13 calls |
| 3 | BKNG Booking Holdings | $147.94 | 🎯 $245 (most reliable) +66% · 12 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 87.5% profitable Rosenblatt · Conso. disc. · 8 calls |
| 4 | GNRC Generac | $201.34 | 🎯 $297 (most reliable) +48% · 9 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 88.9% profitable Cantor Fitzgerald · Industrie · 9 calls |
| 5 | DASH DoorDash | $169.49 | 🎯 $270 (most reliable) +59% · 10 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 87.5% profitable Rosenblatt · Conso. disc. · 8 calls |
| 6 | CPRT Copart | $28.96 | 🎯 $40 (most reliable) +38% · 3 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 94.4% profitable Barrington Research · Industrie · 36 calls |
| 7 | APP AppLovin | $259.97 | 🎯 $560 (most reliable) +115% · 10 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 81.1% profitable Wedbush · Tech · 387 calls |
| 8 | EME Emcor | $678.55 | 🎯 $1047 (most reliable) +54% · 3 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 88.9% profitable Cantor Fitzgerald · Industrie · 9 calls |
| 9 | PWR Quanta Services | $606.89 | 🎯 $960 (most reliable) +58% · 6 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 79.4% profitable Truist Securities · Industrie · 214 calls |
| 10 | UBER Uber | $65.27 | 🎯 $90 (most reliable) +38% · 13 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 88.9% profitable Cantor Fitzgerald · Industrie · 9 calls |
| 11 | VICI Vici Properties | $23.52 | 🎯 $34 (most reliable) +45% · 2 reliable analysts Market consensus : Hold | 86.7% profitable Macquarie · Immo · 15 calls |
| 12 | AMZN Amazon | $254.6 | 🎯 $360 (most reliable) +41% · 20 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 87.5% profitable Rosenblatt · Conso. disc. · 8 calls |
| 13 | GEV GE Vernova | $878.03 | 🎯 $1450 (most reliable) +65% · 4 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 78.6% profitable Guggenheim · Industrie · 28 calls |
| 14 | CHRW C.H. Robinson | $127.6 | 🎯 $200 (most reliable) +57% · 5 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 79.4% profitable Truist Securities · Industrie · 214 calls |
| 15 | NVDA Nvidia | $215.38 | 🎯 $345 (most reliable) +60% · 21 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 81.1% profitable Wedbush · Tech · 387 calls |
| 16 | CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $713.38 | 🎯 $1100 (most reliable) +54% · 5 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 79.4% profitable Truist Securities · Industrie · 214 calls |
| 17 | STX Seagate Technology | $697.97 | 🎯 $1000 (most reliable) +43% · 6 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 81.1% profitable Wedbush · Tech · 387 calls |
| 18 | HWM Howmet Aerospace | $195.19 | 🎯 $350 (most reliable) +79% · 7 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 78.6% profitable Guggenheim · Industrie · 28 calls |
| 19 | KEY KeyCorp | $21.2 | 🎯 $27 (most reliable) +27% · 5 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 87.8% profitable DA Davidson · Finance · 49 calls |
| 20 | XYL Xylem Inc. | $88.23 | 🎯 $150 (most reliable) +70% · 3 reliable analysts Market consensus : Buy | 80.3% profitable Jefferies · Industrie · 294 calls |
🔄 How and when it updates: recomputed on every data refresh (each trading day), last 6 years of analyst targets replayed against real prices. Last update shown at the top.
📊 Interactive version of the tool (charts, live prices, alerts) →
Frequently asked questions
Lower-risk stocks to buy?
The JPI Light (cautious) selection: for each stock we follow the single most reliable analyst on its sector when bullish. The least volatile formula — ideal to invest cautiously or get started. The full list is in the table above, updated regularly.
How is this selection built?
We analyze the analysts, not the stocks: we replay every target against real prices, keep only those who beat their sector, then apply the JPI Light (the single most reliable analyst) formula. Details on the « method » page.
Can I switch methods?
Yes: the buttons at the top switch between the 3 methods (Cautious, Balanced, Aggressive) and the stocks common to all 3 — each method has its own URL.
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational selection, not investment advice. S&P 500 universe, recomputed Yahoo data (point-in-time backtest). Past performance does not predict the future.