FrançaisThe method: spotting analysts with a real edge
The problem
Every day, dozens of banks publish price targets. Most are wrong, and following the average of opinions (« the consensus ») roughly tracks the index — while taking more risk for it. The real signal isn't « what do analysts say », it's « which ones were right, on what, and how much did it pay ».
How we measure
We pull every timestamped analyst target (source: Yahoo Finance) and replay them against real prices: for each call we measure what it would have returned (long on a buy, short on a sell), winners AND losers. It's point-in-time: at each date we only use information available that day (no retroactive cheating). We then rank each analyst by real reliability — not « do they ride the rally », but « do they beat their sector » (alpha).
The 3 formulas that work
All start from the same pool: analysts reliable on the stock's sector (≥55% hit rate, beating their sector). Among them:
- 🟢 JPI Light — follow the single most reliable analyst who is bullish. Cautious, lowest volatility.
- 🎯 JPI Method (recommended) — require ≥2 reliable analysts bullish and take the median of their targets. Balanced and robust.
- ⚡ JPI Risk + — among the reliable ones, follow the most optimistic. Aggressive, more volatile.
Backtest results
| Method | Return/yr | $100,000 grew to (2015→2025) | Volatility | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 JPI Light (prudent) | +21%/an | ~605 000 $ | ~25% | 0,84 |
| 🎯 JPI Fair (équilibré, recommandé) | +26%/an | ~946 000 $ | ~29% | 0,91 |
| ⚡ JPI Risk + (agressif) | +30%/an | ~1 350 000 $ | ~29% | 1,03 |
| Référence : S&P 500 | +12,6%/an | ~332 000 $ | — | 0,86 |
6 years (2015-2025), point-in-time, NVDA included, before fees and taxes. $100,000 starting. Volatility and ratio (risk-adjusted return) show the JPI Method is the best tradeoff.
📊 Explore the detailed backtests (interactive — 12 start months, 3 universes, stock by stock) →
A telling example
The method leans toward beaten-down stocks (large gap to target). In the backtest, ~half the selected stocks had fallen over 12 months — and they rebounded +38%/yr on average the following year (vs +33% for those already rising). In other words: when a good analyst (reliable on the sector) is bullish on a stock everyone hates, that's often where the edge is.
Being honest
This is not a sure thing. It's a single 11-year period, returns are irregular (driven by 2019/2023/2024, −23% trough in 2022 and −9% in 2018), before fees/taxes, and the universe only contains companies still in the index (limited but real survivorship bias). The JPI Method is a quality signal, not a guarantee. For the core of your portfolio, an index ETF stays rational; these formulas are a clear-eyed satellite. This is not personalized advice.
📊 Explore JPI Invest for free →
Frequently asked questions
Does analyst consensus beat the market?
Rarely. Following the average of opinions roughly tracks the index, with more risk. The edge comes from isolating the rare reliable analysts by sector — which JPI Invest does by backtesting every call against real prices.
What is the JPI Invest backtest?
We replay every timestamped analyst target (2015-2025, point-in-time) against real prices and measure real profit per call. The JPI Method (median of ≥2 sector-reliable analysts) returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — but over a single period, before fees, with no guarantee. See the detailed backtests, year by year →
Which formula is best?
The JPI Method (balanced) is the best risk/return tradeoff (ratio 0.91). JPI Light is more cautious (+21%/yr), JPI Risk + more aggressive and volatile (+30%/yr). The most reassuring signal: a stock present in all 3 lists at once.
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email