FrançaisAre analysts right about Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)?
📈 See the interactive version (live chart) →
Historical analyst accuracy
For Commerce Bancshares, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 8% were profitable, average return -6% (50 calls). At 3 months: -2% average return (20% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 28 | 4% | -10% |
| Barclays | 6 | 17% | +9% |
| Raymond James | 6 | 17% | -5% |
Valuation
Is Commerce Bancshares overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Commerce Bancshares right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Commerce Bancshares's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Commerce Bancshares | Sector median (Financials) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.3 | 14.0 |
| Forward P/E | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| Net margin | 32% | 24% |
👉 Commerce Bancshares is valued in line with its sector (14.3 vs 14.0).
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : Commerce Bancshares pays about $1.07/share/yr → 1.83% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is Commerce Bancshares a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) is "Hold" (1 bullish, 0 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 8% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Commerce Bancshares's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $63.50 (+9% vs $58.05), ranging from $62.00 to $66.00 (6 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Commerce Bancshares?
Over 1 year, 8% of analyst targets on Commerce Bancshares were profitable, for an average return of -6% (across 50 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Commerce Bancshares stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $63.50 within 12 months, i.e. +9% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $66.00, the most cautious $62.00.
What is the Commerce Bancshares stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $63.50, +9%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (8%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Commerce Bancshares overvalued?
Its P/E is 14.3, forward P/E 12.7. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Commerce Bancshares →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.