FrançaisAre analysts right about Costco (COST)?
📈 See the interactive version (live chart) →
Historical analyst accuracy
For Costco, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 60% were profitable, average return +22% (409 calls). At 3 months: +6% average return (56% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telsey Advisory Group | 79 | 52% | +23% |
| Oppenheimer | 38 | 71% | +23% |
| Stifel | 29 | 59% | +23% |
| Loop Capital | 24 | 42% | +14% |
| Raymond James | 23 | 65% | +20% |
Valuation
Is Costco overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Costco right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Costco's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Costco | Sector median (Consumer Staples) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 48.1 | 24.4 |
| Forward P/E | 41.2 | 15.6 |
| Net margin | 3% | 7% |
👉 Costco trades above its sector median (48.1 vs 24.4) — the market expects higher growth; watch out for disappointment.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : Costco pays about $5.37/share/yr → 0.58% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is Costco a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Costco (COST) is "Buy" (41 bullish, 1 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 60% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Costco's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $1,135 (+21% vs $935), ranging from $1,000 to $1,315 (11 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Costco?
Over 1 year, 60% of analyst targets on Costco were profitable, for an average return of +22% (across 409 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Costco stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $1,135 within 12 months, i.e. +21% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $1,315, the most cautious $1,000.
What is the Costco stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $1,135, +21%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (60%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Costco overvalued?
Its P/E is 48.1, forward P/E 41.2. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Costco →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.