FrançaisAre analysts right about Harley-Davidson (HOG)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For Harley-Davidson, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 28% were profitable, average return +3% (94 calls). At 3 months: -0% average return (34% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 14 | 21% | +6% |
| Morgan Stanley | 12 | 33% | +11% |
| BMO Capital | 11 | 36% | +5% |
| Baird | 7 | 14% | -13% |
| Barclays | 6 | 50% | +18% |
Valuation
Is Harley-Davidson overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Harley-Davidson right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Harley-Davidson's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Harley-Davidson | Sector median (Consumer Discretionary) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.5 | 19.9 |
| Forward P/E | 14.0 | 14.4 |
| Net margin | 5% | 9% |
👉 Harley-Davidson trades below its sector median (15.5 vs 19.9) — potentially undervalued, or lower expected growth.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : Harley-Davidson pays about $0.74/share/yr → 3.05% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is Harley-Davidson a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Harley-Davidson (HOG) is "Hold" (4 bullish, 6 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 28% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Harley-Davidson's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $26.50 (-5% vs $27.84), ranging from $17.00 to $33.00 (6 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Harley-Davidson?
Over 1 year, 28% of analyst targets on Harley-Davidson were profitable, for an average return of +3% (across 94 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Harley-Davidson stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $26.50 within 12 months, i.e. -5% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $33.00, the most cautious $17.00.
What is the Harley-Davidson stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $26.50, -5%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (28%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Harley-Davidson overvalued?
Its P/E is 15.5, forward P/E 14.0. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Harley-Davidson →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.