FrançaisAre analysts right about Marathon Petroleum (MPC)?
📈 See the interactive version (live chart) →
Historical analyst accuracy
For Marathon Petroleum, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 59% were profitable, average return +23% (239 calls). At 3 months: +5% average return (48% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | 35 | 66% | +24% |
| Raymond James | 29 | 69% | +29% |
| Wells Fargo | 28 | 64% | +29% |
| Morgan Stanley | 28 | 68% | +34% |
| Citigroup | 17 | 35% | +2% |
Valuation
Is Marathon Petroleum overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Marathon Petroleum right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Marathon Petroleum's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Marathon Petroleum | Sector median (Energy) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.6 | 17.2 |
| Forward P/E | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| Net margin | 6% | 14% |
👉 Marathon Petroleum trades below its sector median (12.6 vs 17.2) — potentially undervalued, or lower expected growth.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : Marathon Petroleum pays about $3.91/share/yr → 1.48% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is Marathon Petroleum a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is "Buy" (33 bullish, 0 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 59% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Marathon Petroleum's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $326 (-10% vs $364), ranging from $210 to $376 (12 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Marathon Petroleum?
Over 1 year, 59% of analyst targets on Marathon Petroleum were profitable, for an average return of +23% (across 239 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Marathon Petroleum stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $326 within 12 months, i.e. -10% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $376, the most cautious $210.
What is the Marathon Petroleum stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $326, -10%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (59%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Marathon Petroleum overvalued?
Its P/E is 12.6, forward P/E 11.3. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Marathon Petroleum →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.