FrançaisAre analysts right about Murphy Oil (MUR)?
📈 See the interactive version (live chart) →
Historical analyst accuracy
For Murphy Oil, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 37% were profitable, average return +4% (118 calls). At 3 months: +1% average return (40% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | 24 | 33% | +7% |
| Mizuho | 19 | 37% | -10% |
| Morgan Stanley | 17 | 41% | -29% |
| Keybanc | 11 | 36% | +27% |
| Truist Securities | 9 | 22% | -4% |
Valuation
Is Murphy Oil overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Murphy Oil right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Murphy Oil's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Murphy Oil | Sector median (Energy) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.2 | 16.3 |
| Forward P/E | 11.3 | 12.4 |
| Net margin | 10% | 14% |
👉 Murphy Oil trades above its sector median (21.2 vs 16.3) — the market expects higher growth; watch out for disappointment.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : Murphy Oil pays about $1.35/share/yr → 4.28% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is Murphy Oil a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Murphy Oil (MUR) is "Hold" (5 bullish, 7 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 37% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Murphy Oil's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $42.00 (-2% vs $42.84), ranging from $34.00 to $47.00 (8 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Murphy Oil?
Over 1 year, 37% of analyst targets on Murphy Oil were profitable, for an average return of +4% (across 118 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Murphy Oil stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $42.00 within 12 months, i.e. -2% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $47.00, the most cautious $34.00.
What is the Murphy Oil stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $42.00, -2%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (37%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Murphy Oil overvalued?
Its P/E is 21.2, forward P/E 11.3. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Murphy Oil →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.