FrançaisAre analysts right about Moderna (MRNA)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For Moderna, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 35% were profitable, average return +10% (100 calls). At 3 months: +6% average return (47% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| SVB Leerink | 11 | 36% | -64% |
| Piper Sandler | 10 | 10% | -29% |
| RBC Capital | 9 | 0% | -56% |
| Chardan Capital | 8 | 62% | +124% |
| Barclays | 6 | 33% | +15% |
Frequently asked questions
Is Moderna a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Moderna (MRNA) is "Hold" (5 bullish, 6 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 35% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Moderna's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $77.00 (-46% vs $143), ranging from $38.00 to $150 (10 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Moderna?
Over 1 year, 35% of analyst targets on Moderna were profitable, for an average return of +10% (across 100 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Moderna stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $77.00 within 12 months, i.e. -46% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $150, the most cautious $38.00.
What is the Moderna stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $77.00, -46%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (35%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Moderna overvalued?
Detailed valuation data for Moderna is available in the interactive analysis.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Moderna →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
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- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.