FrançaisAre analysts right about ExxonMobil (XOM)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For ExxonMobil, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 28% were profitable, average return +8% (186 calls). At 3 months: +2% average return (37% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 22 | 46% | +17% |
| Barclays | 19 | 37% | +16% |
| Wells Fargo | 17 | 41% | +11% |
| UBS | 16 | 19% | +11% |
| Piper Sandler | 14 | 43% | +13% |
Valuation
Is ExxonMobil overvalued, and is it a good time to buy ExxonMobil right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: ExxonMobil's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | ExxonMobil | Sector median (Energy) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.1 | 17.2 |
| Forward P/E | 14.7 | 11.9 |
| Net margin | 9% | 14% |
👉 ExxonMobil trades above its sector median (20.1 vs 17.2) — the market expects higher growth; watch out for disappointment.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : ExxonMobil pays about $4.08/share/yr → 2.99% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is ExxonMobil a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on ExxonMobil (XOM) is "Buy" (38 bullish, 1 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 28% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is ExxonMobil's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $174 (+11% vs $156), ranging from $142 to $185 (17 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on ExxonMobil?
Over 1 year, 28% of analyst targets on ExxonMobil were profitable, for an average return of +8% (across 186 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the ExxonMobil stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $174 within 12 months, i.e. +11% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $185, the most cautious $142.
What is the ExxonMobil stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $174, +11%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (28%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is ExxonMobil overvalued?
Its P/E is 20.1, forward P/E 14.7. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of ExxonMobil →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.