FrançaisAre analysts right about Arch Capital Group (ACGL)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For Arch Capital Group, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 53% were profitable, average return +18% (161 calls). At 3 months: +3% average return (49% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | 28 | 54% | +19% |
| Barclays | 21 | 81% | +36% |
| JMP Securities | 20 | 60% | +20% |
| UBS | 19 | 58% | +21% |
| RBC Capital | 17 | 65% | +22% |
Valuation
Is Arch Capital Group overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Arch Capital Group right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Arch Capital Group's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Arch Capital Group | Sector median (Financials) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 | 14.0 |
| Forward P/E | 10.1 | 11.1 |
| Net margin | 24% | 24% |
👉 Arch Capital Group trades below its sector median (7.9 vs 14.0) — potentially undervalued, or lower expected growth.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
Frequently asked questions
Is Arch Capital Group a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is "Buy" (15 bullish, 2 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 53% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Arch Capital Group's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $114 (+15% vs $98.76), ranging from $99.00 to $122 (10 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Arch Capital Group?
Over 1 year, 53% of analyst targets on Arch Capital Group were profitable, for an average return of +18% (across 161 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Arch Capital Group stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $114 within 12 months, i.e. +15% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $122, the most cautious $99.00.
What is the Arch Capital Group stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $114, +15%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (53%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Arch Capital Group overvalued?
Its P/E is 7.9, forward P/E 10.1. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Arch Capital Group →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.