FrançaisAre analysts right about AvalonBay Communities (AVB)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For AvalonBay Communities, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 0% were profitable, average return -0% (135 calls). At 3 months: -0% average return (0% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | 17 | 0% | +0% |
| Keybanc | 13 | 0% | +0% |
| Morgan Stanley | 11 | 0% | -0% |
| Mizuho | 10 | 0% | +0% |
| JP Morgan | 9 | 0% | +0% |
Valuation
Is AvalonBay Communities overvalued, and is it a good time to buy AvalonBay Communities right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: AvalonBay Communities's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | AvalonBay Communities | Sector median (Real Estate) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.2 | 29.5 |
| Forward P/E | 36.8 | 34.2 |
| Net margin | 33% | 25% |
👉 AvalonBay Communities is valued in line with its sector (25.2 vs 29.5).
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : AvalonBay Communities pays about $7.06/share/yr → 3.71% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is AvalonBay Communities a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is "Hold" (14 bullish, 0 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 0% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is AvalonBay Communities's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $70.00 (-62% vs $184), ranging from $67.31 to $75.19 (10 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on AvalonBay Communities?
Over 1 year, 0% of analyst targets on AvalonBay Communities were profitable, for an average return of -0% (across 135 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the AvalonBay Communities stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $70.00 within 12 months, i.e. -62% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $75.19, the most cautious $67.31.
What is the AvalonBay Communities stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $70.00, -62%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (0%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is AvalonBay Communities overvalued?
Its P/E is 25.2, forward P/E 36.8. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of AvalonBay Communities →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.