FrançaisAre analysts right about Dollar Tree (DLTR)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For Dollar Tree, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 31% were profitable, average return +2% (253 calls). At 3 months: +1% average return (40% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 16% | +0% |
| Telsey Advisory Group | 25 | 12% | -16% |
| Truist Securities | 21 | 24% | -3% |
| JP Morgan | 19 | 21% | -4% |
| Wells Fargo | 16 | 44% | +5% |
Valuation
Is Dollar Tree overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Dollar Tree right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Dollar Tree's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Dollar Tree | Sector median (Consumer Staples) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.2 | 24.4 |
| Forward P/E | 16.2 | 15.6 |
| Net margin | 7% | 7% |
👉 Dollar Tree is valued in line with its sector (21.2 vs 24.4).
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
Frequently asked questions
Is Dollar Tree a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Dollar Tree (DLTR) is "Hold" (32 bullish, 10 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 31% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Dollar Tree's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $131 (+3% vs $127), ranging from $89.00 to $170 (19 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Dollar Tree?
Over 1 year, 31% of analyst targets on Dollar Tree were profitable, for an average return of +2% (across 253 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Dollar Tree stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $131 within 12 months, i.e. +3% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $170, the most cautious $89.00.
What is the Dollar Tree stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $131, +3%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (31%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Dollar Tree overvalued?
Its P/E is 21.2, forward P/E 16.2. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Dollar Tree →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.