FrançaisAre analysts right about McDonald's (MCD)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For McDonald's, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 22% were profitable, average return +7% (434 calls). At 3 months: +2% average return (35% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 32 | 31% | +9% |
| Barclays | 31 | 13% | +5% |
| Credit Suisse | 28 | 32% | +10% |
| Keybanc | 26 | 23% | +8% |
| JP Morgan | 22 | 32% | +10% |
Valuation
Is McDonald's overvalued, and is it a good time to buy McDonald's right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: McDonald's's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | McDonald's | Sector median (Consumer Discretionary) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.7 | 19.9 |
| Forward P/E | 18.6 | 14.4 |
| Net margin | 32% | 9% |
👉 McDonald's is valued in line with its sector (21.7 vs 19.9).
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : McDonald's pays about $7.35/share/yr → 2.73% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is McDonald's a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on McDonald's (MCD) is "Buy" (42 bullish, 0 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 22% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is McDonald's's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $306 (+18% vs $260), ranging from $290 to $390 (15 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on McDonald's?
Over 1 year, 22% of analyst targets on McDonald's were profitable, for an average return of +7% (across 434 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the McDonald's stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $306 within 12 months, i.e. +18% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $390, the most cautious $290.
What is the McDonald's stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $306, +18%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (22%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is McDonald's overvalued?
Its P/E is 21.7, forward P/E 18.6. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of McDonald's →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.