FrançaisAre analysts right about Microsoft (MSFT)?
📈 See the interactive version (live chart) →
Historical analyst accuracy
For Microsoft, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 60% were profitable, average return +20% (730 calls). At 3 months: +5% average return (46% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | 46 | 56% | +19% |
| Barclays | 42 | 64% | +21% |
| Piper Sandler | 42 | 62% | +22% |
| Morgan Stanley | 40 | 70% | +22% |
| Citigroup | 37 | 46% | +7% |
Valuation
Is Microsoft overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Microsoft right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Microsoft's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Microsoft | Sector median (Information Technology) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.1 | 39.4 |
| Forward P/E | 21.4 | 20.6 |
| Net margin | 40% | 16% |
👉 Microsoft trades below its sector median (28.1 vs 39.4) — potentially undervalued, or lower expected growth.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
💵 Dividend : Microsoft pays about $3.56/share/yr → 0.93% yield. what is this?
Frequently asked questions
Is Microsoft a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Microsoft (MSFT) is "Buy" (95 bullish, 0 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 60% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Microsoft's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $540 (+7% vs $505), ranging from $450 to $700 (27 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Microsoft?
Over 1 year, 60% of analyst targets on Microsoft were profitable, for an average return of +20% (across 730 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Microsoft stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $540 within 12 months, i.e. +7% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $700, the most cautious $450.
What is the Microsoft stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $540, +7%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (60%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Microsoft overvalued?
Its P/E is 28.1, forward P/E 21.4. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Microsoft →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.