FrançaisAre analysts right about Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For Tesla, Inc., we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 45% were profitable, average return +8% (595 calls). At 3 months: +5% average return (46% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | 61 | 56% | +26% |
| Morgan Stanley | 50 | 56% | -16% |
| RBC Capital | 38 | 53% | -27% |
| Piper Sandler | 37 | 60% | +102% |
| Deutsche Bank | 32 | 44% | +18% |
Valuation
Is Tesla, Inc. overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Tesla, Inc. right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Tesla, Inc.'s valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Tesla, Inc. | Sector median (Consumer Discretionary) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 443.2 | 19.3 |
| Forward P/E | 187.1 | 15.3 |
| Net margin | 3% | 9% |
👉 Tesla, Inc. trades above its sector median (443.2 vs 19.3) — the market expects higher growth; watch out for disappointment.
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
Frequently asked questions
Is Tesla, Inc. a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is "Hold" (48 bullish, 16 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 45% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Tesla, Inc.'s price target?
The median 12-month price target is $442 (+10% vs $403), ranging from $130 to $550 (21 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Tesla, Inc.?
Over 1 year, 45% of analyst targets on Tesla, Inc. were profitable, for an average return of +8% (across 595 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Tesla, Inc. stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $442 within 12 months, i.e. +10% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $550, the most cautious $130.
What is the Tesla, Inc. stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $442, +10%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (45%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Tesla, Inc. overvalued?
Its P/E is 443.2, forward P/E 187.1. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Tesla, Inc. →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.