FrançaisAre analysts right about Ulta Beauty (ULTA)?
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Historical analyst accuracy
For Ulta Beauty, we replayed every analyst price target of the past 12 months and measured the real outcome: 43% were profitable, average return +15% (417 calls). At 3 months: +3% average return (46% profitable). The higher the %, the more often analysts were right on this stock.
Most reliable analysts on this stock (past track record)
Their past track record on this stock (targets replayed against real prices) — not a forecast of what will happen.
| Analyst / broker | Calls i | % profitable i | Avg return i |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | 40 | 50% | +20% |
| JP Morgan | 32 | 59% | +24% |
| Telsey Advisory Group | 32 | 38% | +12% |
| Wells Fargo | 28 | 32% | +1% |
| Piper Sandler | 25 | 36% | +8% |
Valuation
Is Ulta Beauty overvalued, and is it a good time to buy Ulta Beauty right now? If you're wondering, here's a recap to make up your own mind: Ulta Beauty's valuation vs its sector median, to weigh alongside analyst reliability (above) and past performance. Educational information, not buy advice.
The P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) = how many years of earnings you pay for the stock. The higher it is, the more growth the market expects — but the pricier the stock, so more vulnerable if growth disappoints. The forward P/E uses next year's expected earnings: lower than the current P/E = rising expected earnings. We compare it to the sector median to see whether the stock is expensive relative to its peers.
| Metric | Ulta Beauty | Sector median (Consumer Discretionary) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.4 | 19.9 |
| Forward P/E | 17.0 | 14.4 |
| Net margin | 9% | 9% |
👉 Ulta Beauty is valued in line with its sector (20.4 vs 19.9).
📖 P/E, PEG, margin…: see the glossary
Frequently asked questions
Is Ulta Beauty a buy right now?
The analyst consensus on Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is "Buy" (60 bullish, 5 bearish calls over 12 months). This is not advice: historically, 43% of their targets on this stock turned out profitable over 1 year.
What is Ulta Beauty's price target?
The median 12-month price target is $641 (+19% vs $540), ranging from $450 to $735 (18 analysts).
Are analysts accurate on Ulta Beauty?
Over 1 year, 43% of analyst targets on Ulta Beauty were profitable, for an average return of +15% (across 417 timestamped calls). This is JPI Invest's accuracy metric.
What is the Ulta Beauty stock forecast?
Analysts target a median of $641 within 12 months, i.e. +19% vs the current price. The most bullish targets $735, the most cautious $450.
What is the Ulta Beauty stock forecast for 2026 or long term (2030)?
Note: analyst targets are 12-month (median $641, +19%), NOT 2030. No reliable 5-10 year price forecast exists (« 2030 prediction » models are speculative). The most useful inputs: the 12-month median above, these analysts' historical accuracy (43%), and the stock's past trajectory.
Is Ulta Beauty overvalued?
Its P/E is 20.4, forward P/E 17.0. A forward P/E lower than the current P/E means earnings are expected to grow.
📊 See the full interactive analysis of Ulta Beauty →
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational information, not investment advice. Analyst price targets are 12-month and can be wrong. Data via Yahoo Finance, recomputed by JPI Invest.