FrançaisThe 20 best stocks of 2016 according to reliable analysts
These stocks were not cherry-picked in hindsight: they are the ones the method would have selected using only info known by end of 2015 (price targets from reliable analysts in the prior ~90 days), then held unchanged for 12 months. A true point-in-time record.
🎯 JPI Fair +16% · vs S&P 500 +10% · +6 pts
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU Micron Technology | +55% |
| 2 | KMI Kinder Morgan | +39% |
| 3 | ADI Analog Devices | +31% |
| 4 | QCOM Qualcomm | +30% |
| 5 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +27% |
| 6 | EQT EQT Corporation | +25% |
| 7 | HPQ HP Inc. | +25% |
| 8 | MAR Marriott International | +23% |
| 9 | CMCSA Comcast | +22% |
| 10 | BSX Boston Scientific | +17% |
| 11 | EA Electronic Arts | +15% |
| 12 | WDC Western Digital | +13% |
| 13 | MET MetLife | +12% |
| 14 | HCA HCA Healthcare | +9% |
| 15 | NRG NRG Energy | +4% |
| 16 | AMP Ameriprise Financial | +4% |
| 17 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions | -3% |
| 18 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | -3% |
| 19 | F Ford Motor Company | -14% |
| 20 | CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | -21% |
⚡ JPI Risk + +24% · vs S&P 500 +10% · +14.2 pts
| # | Stock | 12-month return |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | OKE Oneok | +133% |
| 2 | HAL Halliburton | +59% |
| 3 | MU Micron Technology | +55% |
| 4 | DVN Devon Energy | +43% |
| 5 | IP International Paper | +41% |
| 6 | KMI Kinder Morgan | +39% |
| 7 | NTAP NetApp | +33% |
| 8 | AKAM Akamai Technologies | +27% |
| 9 | EQT EQT Corporation | +25% |
| 10 | HPQ HP Inc. | +25% |
| 11 | JCI Johnson Controls | +23% |
| 12 | WDC Western Digital | +13% |
| 13 | DD DuPont | +11% |
| 14 | HCA HCA Healthcare | +9% |
| 15 | NRG NRG Energy | +4% |
| 16 | SWKS Skyworks Solutions | -3% |
| 17 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | -3% |
| 18 | F Ford Motor Company | -14% |
| 19 | CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | -21% |
| 20 | CF CF Industries | -23% |
What if you'd kept following the method in 2017?
| Year | JPI Fair | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +16% | +10% |
| 2017 | +26% | +19% |
| 2-year cumulative (if you kept going) | +46% | +31% |
💡 The takeaway — you have to accept the average or down years and stay in the method (sell, rebuy the newly recommended names). Whoever panics after a bad year misses the rebound. Discipline > emotion.
📊 See the full 11-year backtest → 🎯 Stocks to buy today →
FAQ
What were the best stocks to buy in 2016?
Per the JPI Fair method (targets from the ≥2 most reliable analysts per sector), the 20 S&P 500 stocks selected in early 2016 returned +15.6% on average over 12 months, vs 9.6% for the index. The best was MU (Micron Technology) at +55%. See the full list above.
How were these 2016 stocks chosen?
With no hindsight: only from information known by end of 2015 (price targets from analysts with a real reliability track record on their sector), then held 12 months. A point-in-time backtest, not a hindsight pick.
Does this method actually work?
Over 11 years (2015-2025), the JPI Fair method returned +26%/yr vs +12.6% for the S&P 500 — double the market. But it's lumpy (drawdowns in 2018 and 2022) and risk-adjusted the edge is thinner. A quality signal, not a guarantee.
What is JPI Invest?
JPI Invest aggregates analyst recommendations across the entire S&P 500 (plus the S&P MidCap 400), replays them against real prices and measures who predicts best — on results, not reputation. Instead of taking a price target at face value, you see each analyst's track record on each stock.
- 🏆 Analyst leaderboard by real reliability (beating their sector, not just riding the rally)
- 🎯 What to buy: 3 backtested methods over 6 years, from cautious to aggressive
- 💬 AI assistant: ask anything about any stock, with the numbers
- 📊 Portfolio tracking + 🔔 price alerts by email
⚠️ Educational analysis, not investment advice. Point-in-time backtest on recomputed Yahoo data, universe = stocks still in the index (survivorship bias). Past performance does not predict the future.